Home > Ron Paul > Can Ron Paul Actually Win The Iowa Caucus?

Can Ron Paul Actually Win The Iowa Caucus?

December 22, 2011 Leave a comment Go to comments

I’m beginning to believe that the answer to this question is yes.

With the January 3rd Iowa Caucus approaching just days away, it’s Paul, who has long been a middle of the pack Republican contender, suddenly surging to the top of the polls.

In the latest Iowa Caucus polling data, Paul has now taken a small lead over perennial front-runner Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has recently seen his own poll number surge quickly come back down to earth.

Polling data is all well and good but can Ron Paul actually pull out a win in Iowa?  It seems like at this point he can.  His campaign seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time.  While others have taken their turn in the spotlight, Paul has seen steady if not significant support.  Voters seem to be showing signs of fatigue with some of the long-standing candidates like Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and may be giving Ron Paul a serious look for the first time.

Paul is definitely not your typical Washington politician.  He tends to carry some unique views that at times clash with members of both parties but he is never boring.  Whereas many Presidential candidates (and politicians in general) can have that plain vanilla, “we’ve seen this before” kind of feel, Paul stands out as a breath of fresh air.  Whether or not you agree with his views, Paul is definitely a guy who stands out from the crowd.

The answer to whether or not Paul has a serious shot at the Republican nomination will be answered in less than two weeks.  A win in Iowa could propel him to front-runner status for the remainder of the campaign.  A third place finish behind Gingrich and Romney could push him back to the middle of the pack.

These next two weeks could end up being the most important of Paul’s campaign.  I, for one, can’t wait for the results.

What say you?  Do you think Ron Paul has what it takes to pull out a win in Iowa?  Feel free to comment below.

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  1. December 22, 2011 at 11:01 am

    This is so refreshing. I’ve been following Paul’s career since he started eying the Presidential nomination for the Republicans back in ’08–what he was saying then was anathema to Republicans. All of a sudden, with the collusion of the Tea Party and this sudden, strange fear of government among Americans, it’s like the electorate rearranged itself into stark alliance with Paul.

    I think he can–but God knows it’s a long shot. What’s encouraging is that, say Paul’s got a 10% chance of winning: he had a 9% chance two weeks ago, and 7% two weeks before that. The slow but rock-solid upward trend is tantalizing, yet I don’t want to get too excited and then watch his support fall apart.

    • December 22, 2011 at 8:53 pm

      I agree. It’s kind of strange. Ron Paul has been around for years and he’s been in this election for months. Why is he just getting attention now? Are people just now getting fed up with everybody in government and looking for alternatives? I don’t know.

  2. December 22, 2011 at 11:33 am

    Ron Paul has been a steadfast and ardent advocate for doing the right thing for America. He has consistently maintained the fraud and corruption running so rampant in our government and I believe America is finally beginning to “wake up” and believe him for once. He may just be the one to wake us up the rest of the way. I sure hope so. I support him and what he stands for!

    • December 22, 2011 at 8:55 pm

      People may be late to the party but they do seem to be recognizing him. Whether I agree with him or not, I am glad he’s getting his recognition. An election with him is more interesting.

  3. December 22, 2011 at 12:58 pm

    He absolutely has a chance; a fractured and oft-seeming schizophrenic GOP electorate has created an intriguing gap this cycle for Paul to exploit, and Iowa is obviously the place for him to do it. No one should mistake Paul for a serious contender overall, however, but the Iowa numbers are telling RE: the rest of the field.

    • December 22, 2011 at 8:57 pm

      I honestly don’t know if has the goods to carry this momentum beyond about a month or two. He is peaking at the right time though.

  4. December 22, 2011 at 1:19 pm

    Sure, Ron Paul can win Iowa. His popular anti-government, anti-business positions strikes a cord with voters.

    Paul is the only politician whose ideas have been embraced by both the Tea Party Movement and the Occupy Movement. That isn’t easy to do!

    What he can’t win is the Presidency. This country just isn’t ready for a libertarian President.

    • December 22, 2011 at 8:59 pm

      I’m not sure he has what it takes to make it to the end but I honestly never thought I’d see him at the top of any of the polls. Maybe he can make it. I honestly don’t know at this point.

  5. December 22, 2011 at 1:53 pm

    Ron Paul has a very good chance in Iowa… but not sure about winning the party. I’m so torn myself these days. Can’t really say there is any one candidate I care for. I’m following and voting more so whoever comes out with the least number of items I don’t like or agree with. Sad. Voting for the lesser of two evils this coming November.

    • December 22, 2011 at 9:00 pm

      I’ve heard that a lot of people are voting against a candidate instead of for one so I can’t say I’m surprised. This isn’t a good year for candidates in general though.

  6. December 22, 2011 at 2:46 pm

    RP fell into the “front-runner trap.” Once he started polling well, the media turned its focus his way. While his foreign policy stance has been consistently outside the mainstream for 30 years, he was hanging on (Mostly due to a vehemently anti-war sentiment among the under 25 set), his past positions on race relations that are starting to erode his viability. The funny thing is everyone refers to Paul as a Libertarian. I guess that’s mainly because he ran as a Libertarian in ’00. But the real Libertarian in the race is Gary Johnson.

    • December 22, 2011 at 9:02 pm

      The front runner trap has caught everybody that’s landed in it thus far and I don’t think Paul will be any different. I’m just surprised that after so many years in politics he’s just now suddenly getting people’s attention.

  7. December 22, 2011 at 2:49 pm

    Expect Paul to pull a 2nd place finish behind Romney (unless there is another big shake up in the next week and a half I am willing to stick to that prediction).

    His ground game is second to none, but he will be hurt by media scrutiny, the fact that the caucus happens over winter break for college students, and the looming fact that his national numbers are substantially weaker than they are in Iowa.

    • December 22, 2011 at 9:04 pm

      I agree. I think the media could have a field day with Paul. Iowa could be one hell of a vote.

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