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South Carolina Is The Last Chance For Republicans To Challenge Romney

January 11, 2012 1 comment

With the New Hampshire primary in the rear view mirror and a convincing Mitt Romney victory in the books, time is rapidly running out for Republican presidential candidates to pose a formidable threat to the former Massachusetts governor.

I believe that the upcoming primary in South Carolina on January 21st is the last realistic opportunity that guys like Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have in this race.  If this race ends up like recent polling suggests, Romney will have essentially sealed up the Republican nomination.

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New Hampshire Primary Preview: Romney Can Seal The Deal

January 10, 2012 10 comments

Today marks the first official primary of the election season.  New Hampshire, which currently ranks #42 out of the 50 states in population, continues to hold a disproportionately large influence in the race for president by holding their primary earlier than anyone else in the country.

Mitt Romney has been leading the polls in New Hampshire since the start.  The latest polls indicate that he has well over a double digit lead over Ron Paul and should cruise to victory.  The bigger battle may be for second place.  Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman are within a couple percent of each other and Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not that far behind them.

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Only Romney And Santorum Can Claim Success In Iowa; Ron Paul Is The Caucus’ Big Loser

January 4, 2012 6 comments

I stayed up late Wednesday night watching the results from the Iowa caucus continue to roll in.  As Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney jockeyed back and forth for the lead in the night’s election, it started to become quite obvious that these two guys were the only ones that had a good night in Iowa.  The biggest loser in the Iowa caucus?  That one’s easy.  It’s Ron Paul.

Despite the popularity spikes by most every candidate out there in the last several months, Mitt Romney has remained the presumptive favorite to capture the nomination.  His narrow 8 vote victory over Rick Santorum did nothing to damage his front-runner status.  He simply needed to avoid a disappointing performance or last minute foot-in-mouth moment to keep his momentum rolling forward and he did just that.

I said in my original Iowa caucus preview that Rick Santorum’s best case scenario was a second place finish.  I clearly underestimated his backing in Iowa as he stood toe to toe with Romney the entire evening.  Polling in the low single digits for much of his candidacy, Santorum rode a last minute surge in popularity to within just 8 votes of what would have been one of the most surprising election wins in recent memory.

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Iowa Caucus Live Results

January 3, 2012 8 comments

With 97% reporting….

Rick Santorum 29,210 (25%)
Mitt Romney 29,173 (25%)
Ron Paul 25,307 (21%)
Newt Gingrich 15,722 (13%)
Rick Perry 12,194 (10%)
Michele Bachmann 5,934 (5%)
Jon Huntsman 712 (1%)

They also just flashed a stat on the TV that 48% of 17-29 year old Iowa voters voted for Ron Paul tonight. In case you were wondering if he’s capturing the minds of younger voters.

Iowa Caucus Preview: Who Wins And Who Loses?

December 29, 2011 8 comments

The first big jewel on the road to the November 2012 presidential election is almost upon us.  On Wednesday, January 3rd, the Iowa caucus will be the first leg in what could be a long and arduous road towards the Republican presidential nomination.

The latest polling in Iowa indicates that it’s literally still anybody’s race to win.  Polls had indicated that Ron Paul had pulled ahead in Iowa but today’s numbers show that Mitt Romney may have grabbed a small lead back.  Newt Gingrich who had been surging in the last month has promptly crashed back to earth and now Rick Santorum is the latest to experience a mini-surge thanks to Christian conservative voters.

The point is that it’s still completely up in the air as to what will happen on Wednesday.  Candidates will likely say that their showing in Iowa will be a positive regardless of what happens but there are true good and bad scenarios for each candidate.  Let’s run down the best and worst case scenario for each Republican candidate (numbers in parentheses indicate the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages in Iowa as of December 28th).

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Victory For Dems! Personhood Vote In Mississippi Defeated While Ohio Rejects Collective Bargaining Law

November 9, 2011 1 comment

It can’t be viewed as anything other than a big night for Democrats.

Voters in two states overwhelmingly rejected measures that would have had far reaching implications across the American public and for the 2012 elections.  Voters in Ohio easily overturned Gov. John Kasich’s labor law that eliminated most public worker’s collective bargaining rights.  63% of voters chose to restore the rights eliminated by the law such as the right to collective bargain, strike and negotiate health and retirement benefits.

Mississippi voters also turned what was estimated to be a close vote into a rout.  Amendment 26, which would have defined life as beginning at the moment of conception instead of birth, failed to pass by a 58% to 42% margin.  Similar measures like the one in Colorado have failed in the past but advocates vow that the fight is not over.

After losing a number of seats in the 2010 midterm elections, this could be a sign that momentum is swinging back in the blue party’s favor.  Collective bargaining rights should never have been eliminated under any circumstance (I still hold out hope that Wisconsin will overturn Scott Walker’s law).  Amendment 26 would have had far-reaching consequences for abortion and birth control and several questions would have remained had the measure passed like what happens in the case of rape victims or what happens if the mother’s life is at risk.  It might be better to debate these issues before putting something like this into law.

Regardless, this is a big win for Democrats.  Let’s hope the momentum continues!

Mississippi “Personhood” Voting Results

November 8, 2011 4 comments

With 88% of precincts reporting…

Yes – 296,892 (41.6%)
No – 417,295 (58.4%)

I think it’s pretty safe to say at this point that this amendment won’t be passing tonight.

UPDATE 9:38PM CT – It’s been officially called. Amendment 26 has failed.